INFLUENCIAS DE LAS TENDENCIAS ESTRATÉGICAS GLOBALES EN LA REPÚBLICA ARGENTINA

INFLUENCIAS DE LAS TENDENCIAS ESTRATÉGICAS GLOBALES EN LA REPÚBLICA ARGENTINA

INFLUENCIAS DE LAS TENDENCIAS ESTRATÉGICAS GLOBALES EN LA REPÚBLICA ARGENTINA

The aim of the present work is to identify the likely influence of trends in the global strategic in the Republic of Argentina, during the next ten years.

To do this, is to be taken as a reference for analysis of the document “Global Trends 2040” published by the National Intelligence Council of the united States of America (CNI 2021). While this document represents the opinion of an agency of the state government, by the depth of research and breadth of opinions consulted, and what is considered valid for the analysis of the global evolution, particularly in terms of their implications for our country.

With respect to the subject receiver of the analysis, our country, the impact of the trends and its influence on their evolution requires an effort of creative analysis because, in addition to recognizing the serious difficulties of the Republic of Argentina (poverty, government debt, inflation, unemployment, etc) that are summarized in a socio-economic crisis and uncertain long-term, it is necessary to imagine a scenario of increased stability and institutional quality, in which to confront the global trends, both to reduce the vulnerabilities to take advantage of the opportunities.

The analysis shall be carried out highlighting aspects of the Ideas Driving Forces or transformative (Demography, and Human Development, Environment, Economy and Technology) and its influence on the Trends raised in the reference document (Global Challenges, Fragmentation, Imbalance, Dispute and Adaptation), with emphasis on our social dynamics and national.

Also, if you generate proposals is not subject of the work at this time, and considering that some aspects of decision-making such as the struggle for pre-eminence international beyond our possibilities, you can not avoid the tendency to put emphasis on those aspects in which national political decisions may affect the future situation desired.

DEMOGRAPHY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

“The slowdown in the growth of the world population and the increase of the average age will help some developing economies, but the rapid aging and shrinking of the population will weigh on many developed economies. It will be difficult to improve, or even maintain, the progress made over decades in the field of education, health and poverty reduction. It is likely to increase the pressure of migration.”

The increase of the average age of the population, mainly due to the advancement in the health measures, will contribute to the development of our country and will impact especially in the neighbouring countries with birth rates are higher than ours. This is because the workforce is one of the elements necessary for the productive activity.

The level of cultural, educational and health of our country will continue to constitute a point of destination for regional migration. The level of education and job skills of the migrants will depend on the economic situation of each country of origin, as the case may be of some with high level of education as in the case of Venezuela (lately) and Colombia (previous years), or others such as Bolivia and Paraguay, most traditionally trained for tasks requesting the manual work.

The situation of our country, of clear educational crisis in education, lower and middle, not to be reversed in the coming years, you can generate migrations fill job vacancies of lower level, while maintaining and increasing unemployment of nationals and the need of your support through subsidies. This situation is predicted scenarios of social disputes difficult to solve by the State. A situation that already exists, but it runs the risk of growing.

At the other end of the scale of education, our country, the situation is clearly favorable. The excellence of our university system, public and private, is shown by the large number of professionals with the knowledge, initiative and inventiveness, which are highlighted in many national and international settings.

The number of “unicorns” (technology companies that exceed the value of 1,000,000 U$S) arising in our country, in connection with the arisen in other nations of the region are a clear example of the relevance of the entrepreneurship ecosystem as a local, based on the educational system of our country.

However, the political and economic conditions, coupled with the logical need to expand, it generates that many of these companies and their “brains” to migrate to other countries.

On the other hand, the socio-economic crisis encouraged the emigration of a significant human capital, mostly young people with college degrees or tertiary looking for in other countries, the development here are limited.

With this loss of human capacities, the amount of which tends to increase, our educational system, currently forming talents, can hardly maintain that level of excellence in the coming decades.

The likely new distribution of the population of our country, in terms of social and educational, will require the State the definition of a clear policy in terms of production incentives, the creation of jobs and the education needed to obtain the required skills for the job offer.

Also, the future of employment opportunities, more oriented to the technological capabilities and intellectuals to the requesting physical effort, generate social disputes, by the logical aspiration of individual economic and social progress.

Another likely consequence of the migration to receive (by the arguments as educational capacities and health, etc) is to project a society more fragmented, not only by the logic tendency to maintain the customs, and the identity of the migrants, but generated by competition between social groups that seek to position themselves in the labour market and those that are considered to be displaced by foreigners.

This fragmentation can not only be represented within the society, but also with the neighbouring States, for the different conditions of receptivity (residency requirements, health care, etc) to migrants, whether they are permanent or temporary. This already happens in our day, and is at risk of growing.

Finally, coming back to the trend marked in the source document (“Imbalance” – CNI 2021), the social disputes generated by the migration can be exacerbated by the lack of response by the state to the social demands, deteriorating governance.

ENVIRONMENT

“Climate change will exacerbate each time more risks to human security and national, and it will force States to make difficult decisions and to make concessions. The loads will be distributed unevenly, which will increase the competition, will contribute to the instability, will test the military readiness and promote political movements.”

The problem of the environment and therefore more noticeable, climate change, perhaps the area in which our country, despite not having a capacity decisive influence on the international level, has comparative advantages based on the availability of natural resources.

Stop the deterioration of the environment is clearly a global challenge, but to find the right way to achieve this it is necessary to remember that climate change is a direct result of the rate of growth of productive systems and their desired consequence, human development.

To do this, the natural resources that are needed, and the power to exploit them and transform them is a must. Also, the desire to achieve the highest standards of development is inherent to every human group and, therefore, it is genuine the right to dispose of the resources to do it.

The deterioration of the environment, which today is perceived as a threat, and is caused especially by the use of fossil fuels and their derivatives, essential energy source for the productive development of the last 150 years. It is, therefore, expected that in the future, the international pressure for the reduction of greenhouse gases to limit or condition the installation or growth of polluting industries.

The result is the orientation towards the use of the pre-eminent of the electricity from renewable energy sources, something that is already being seen actively in all types of transport and even in the household, where in many regions it is replacing the use of the gas. Example of this is the social reaction in some regions of Spain, where the compliance of european standards did cease the employment of thermal power plants, with the consequence resulting from the increase in electricity rates.

We see with this example as the pursuit of a cleaner environment and healthy, something that is unanimously recognized and accepted, it does not find the same reception when the change generates the reduction of the economic resources of the individual. One more reason of disputes in the society where you will generate imbalances, if the state does not plan adequately for the transition from one system to another.

The sources of renewable energy production, especially solar and wind, will gain prominence, to the extent that they will continue to lowering the costs of production. In both types of energy our country has vast possibilities of development and, in consequence, to achieve the environmental balance as intended.

The other aspect that is inherent to the production of energy is the storage of the same, when this does not occur instantly, being solution, until the time, the lithium battery (already used for the engines of vehicles and electrical devices), and the stack of hydrogen (obtained primarily by hydrolysis, still a high cost of electricity). Our country has one of the most important deposits of lithium (shared with Bolivia and Chile), which positions it favorably.

This transition of energy based on fossil fuels to energy based on renewable sources and non-polluting, requires significant investment, which will generate a dispute between the nations.

Also, this model of renewable energy production supports the possibility of decentralizing the same, to the point that an individual actor is able to produce the resources it consumes and to sell the surplus. This situation, which is favorable for the company, you can generate, like every innovation, some fragmentation between social groups favored with respect to those that require the support of the state.

ECONOMY

“Several world economic trends, such as increasing the national debt, a business environment more complex and fragmented, the global spread of trade in services, the new shocks on employment and the continuous increase of the powerful companies, they are setting the conditions within States and between them. It will intensify calls for greater planning and regulation, particularly of the large companies of platform and e-commerce.”

In terms of the transformative force of the economy and the trends that can influence in our country, without a doubt, the issue of the debt is in the first place. The increase of the national debt, for many countries is an inevitable problem, which has grown especially as a product of the needs generated by the global pandemic of COVID-19 (health care, vaccines, and decreased productivity).

For our country, the problem of debt is a constant that has been influential for decades without a proper resolution, to such an extent that the emergence of the pandemic required, to meet the extraordinary expenses (health care, subsidies, etc) of the issuance of the national currency, with the subsequent result of inflation.

However, the issuance of currency, always discouraged by the classical economists, has been a tool used by many countries to alleviate the costs of the pandemic. Even the International Monetary Fund, made an issue of extraordinary Special drawing Rights in an amount of U$S 650.000 M, distributed between the member countries as a contribution to alleviate the crisis.

This special circumstance, such is the increase of the debt of most countries, it generates a global phenomenon whose consequences still are not visible. As a minimum implies a certain degree of imbalance that, once the pandemic, probably determined by agreements and regulations in order to solve this problem.

In this global context, where the debt of nations represents a serious problem to solve, the debt situation of our country, previous to the pandemic, somehow softens and thins. Do not let be a problem, but it happens to have a lower relative weight in the international financial architecture.

Trade disputes between China and the US, the pair create uncertainty and instability in international trade, can generate opportunities for partnerships of convenience. As a result of this dispute, also is expected to consider the application of practices of protectionism that affect the international trade.

Globalized trade, amplified through electronic markets, you will likely have to these companies as the key players of the global economic development. In this sense, all the nations will see the need of increasing regulations to ensure the collection that each law may determine.

Our country, taking into account the experience demonstrated by their “unicorns”, both in electronic commerce as well as in the production of digital goods and services, that you can take advantage of this situation. However, owing to its geographical position, to extend their trade to other assets, you must create the conditions to reduce the logistics costs of transportation, especially air and sea, according to which the added value of the product.

Changes to internal demographic will also have a major impact on the economy in two fundamental aspects, the job skills required, and the pension system.

The impact of process automation and artificial Intelligence in the production of goods, and are sure to generate a decrease of the labor required, that probably can't be absorbed by the producers of services. This situation, in addition to generating disputes, fragmentation and imbalances to address the unmet social needs, will require states to set planning, not exempt of risks and uncertainties that generate the rapid changes of technological innovation.

Any failure or lack of policies that does not solve the problem of unemployment will generate tensions and imbalances that will affect not only the economy of the State, but even governance.

The second demographic problem is the progressive aging of the population makes it possible to foresee a serious risk of collapse of the pension systems. This is a scenario that the united States will need to adapt and generate measures not only comfort, but to ensure a continuous development.

The simplest solution would be to increase the spending planned and the working age, which in addition to the imbalance to the public purse could generate disputes and social fragmentation.

The stage of adaptation to ensure the continuity of the system, could be indicated by the generation of new skills, both for young people to increase the mass that brings with capacities adapted to the new technologies, such as people extend their working activity to continue to provide services appropriate to their age.

All this is likely to mean that the State must be very attentive to these changes and to anticipate with the right policies, in which the education for the job will occupy an essential role.

TECHNOLOGY

“The pace and scope of technological developments will increase, transforming the experience and human capacity and creating at the same time, new tensions and disturbances for all the actors. Will increase the global competition for the basic elements of the supremacy of technology. The technologies and applications arising enable rapid adoption.”

Science and technology are bound to fields of human activity to a greater and more rapid growth in the last century, and all indications are that this will be. The Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of things (IoT) to the increase of the speed of connectivity is seen as the engines of development.

The development of new technologies requires clear policy decisions and important economic investment that not all countries will be able to face the same way, which will generate an uneven development in function of the capacities of each country. This asymmetry is already seen in our days and the trend is expected to increase.

The dissemination of knowledge and the convergence of different branches of science will accelerate the technological developments, with a great impact in all spheres of life, both from the productivity of the enterprises in the conditions of human life, which presents a scenario very optimistic

However, the global competition for the supremacy of technology, in areas such as human talent, the knowledge and the access to the markets, could lead to new leaders or hegemonies, technological, who could be interested over the economic benefit of the global development. The current situation of our country, with a constant “brain drain” is a flag that can be aggravated.

The technologies and applications arising will be available for rapid adoption, which will allow developing countries to take advantage of the latest advances in basic, even without having invested in its development. Countries such as ours, with low investment capacity in science and technology, still in this position of pre-eminence of the great economic powers, have the possibility of developing global applications in areas niche and contribute to the global supply chains.

The rapid evolution of technological change can cause the host countries, not producers, stay late permanently with respect to the first line. In this aspect, it will be essential to develop the ability to observe and anticipate the changes, to detect opportunities and to exploit niches in technology.

Adapting to change is essential, but to anticipate them, even at the risk of a benefit is uncertain, it is a decision of those nations that aspire to compete in the best conditions. To do this it will be important to actively participate in international cooperation and integrate clusters to share the knowledge.

The technological developments, mainly those based on AI, automation and the management and exploitation of data will result in a decrease of the jobs. Social disputes, national and even between States, given by the different conditions of the demand for labour, increase the imbalance within and between States (for migration), requiring the same clear policies, in which the labor education will be one of the main tools of adaptation.

The change of supply chains could affect disproportionately less advanced economieswhile many of the new jobs will require workers with skills improved or adjusted.

Advances in areas such as biotechnology, clearly benefits to human health by extending the expectation and quality of life, can create serious ethical conflicts. Demonstration of this are the discussions in force about reproduction, cloning, genetic manipulation, experimentation of drugs and vaccines, etc, The advancement of knowledge in these areas can increase the disputes to current social and encourage the fragmentation based more on political or religious beliefs than on scientific opinions.

The handling of data, or Big Data, which will facilitate decisions in various areas will have a positive influence on the production processes. However, in both the privacy of the people, and the manipulation of their decisions could be affected by, this technology can be seriously questioned and rejected, requiring effective action on the part of the State to guarantee human security. Result will be the increase of the fragmentation that has already seen.

The risks existential are another aspect of a very difficult prediction. Technological advances require a lot of experimentation, and the race to get first, with its consequent economic benefit, can generate threats that could harm the life on a global scale. The AI without a proper human oversight, pandemics resulting from experiments in research projects or nuclear accidents, may cause harm to global scope that affect humanity.

Our country, even when you might not be causing these phenomena, will not escape its effects, as evidenced by the current pandemic of COVID. In that regard, it should develop resilience strategies, mainly comprised of the identification capabilities of the potential risks and the development of mitigation strategies.

Last, but not least, the technological development will have a decisive influence on the armed conflict, both from different ways of acting on the will of the opponent, whether direct or indirect, physical or through cyberspace, as by the use of weapons based on AI, which time and conditions of employment could be autonomous and escape to the will of the decision-maker to human. These aspects will be the occasion of profound debates on the part of the military analysts, both in operational aspects as well as ethical considerations.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

● US National Intelligence Council (marzo de 2021). Global Trends 2040: a more contested world. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. ISBN 978-1-929667-33-8. Retrieved from: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf